"Ladies and Gentlemen of the class of '99
If I could offer you only one tip for the future,
Sunscreen would be it
The long term benefits of sunscreen have been proved by scientists
whereas the rest of my advice has no basis more reliable than my own meandering experience...
I will dispense this advice now..."
Of course, I borrowed those wise words from a song. Here are a few more from one of my favs and it is amazing how true they remain - no matter how much time passes by:
"Well alas we've seen it all before
Knights in armour, days for yore
The same old fears and the same old crimes
We haven't changed since ancient times"
So - that's a long-winded way of suggesting there are a few things to dispense of now:
First, in the "You Must Be Kidding Me" Box Today...is this:
Guess what? It's because half are not Republican. It has nothing to do with what's in the tax bill. Further? It would be identical if it was a Democratic Party Tax Bill. So get over it...no news here...but it is hilarious to watch.
This is news:
The second read on GDP went up to 3.3% and inflation went down - while many other important categories set records. And yet?
Lauer made more headlines...pathetic.
The two snapshots above show increasing records set in major corporate investments - both on residential investment and then industrial equipment and more and more manufacturing comes back here from overseas.
That tends to be very positive for long-term trends and is topped off with records set in R&D in all channels.
We are setting records folks, no matter how you slice it - and it is still falling on deaf ears....or should we say, um, scared ears?
Check out the latest from the sentiment camp.
Here's the read we need to take out of this. IF we really needed to worry that the crowd was falling in love with stocks, then at the VERY LEAST they would be leaving the Neutral camp and going to the bullish side - NOT the bearish side of the ledger.
Maybe it's bitcoin? Ok, I am kidding.
We know the problem it is not personal income - that is setting records as well. Retail sales are solid. Savings closing in on $11 Trillion in cash.
Collectively, we have never had more people employed, more job openings available and/or more wages being earned.
Heck, it was hiring that even pulled the latest Chicago PMI data to higher levels - check it out below:
And yet, they still stand in line for bonds: - at 2.39% for the next decade....really?
Look - I know I always say, pray for a correction. I get calls and emails from some thinking I am suggesting a correction is coming.
No - sorry, that would be incorrect - I am really praying for a correction. : )
And yes, of course a correction is coming sometime in the future. My crystal ball is still in the shop - on Mars. When Mr. Musk brings it back, I will let you know the date that correction will take place.
Until then, we will need to operate in the same environment we have since the beginning of investing - the one where not a soul on earth knows when the correction is coming.
I say pray for a correction so that we can a) get some good deals and, b) keep the fear deeply entrenched for the next 15,000 Dow points up.
Hey, I kinda wish there was some horrible news to share with you. I suppose we could get lost in fear over the idiot in N. Korea. But that would not build your wealth, mend your health or save you from anything. We could get riddled with angst over the next person to be accused of harassment - but that would only be poisoning your soul with wasted hate for people. And for what really?
I suggest we keep our eye on the ball.
Listen - if this was easy - it would have been called fun - and not a life-long journey of building toward your financial goals.
So let this all sink in - things are solid - and getting better.
The players are on the field and warming up. It is NOT the 9th inning. Heck, the game has not even started.
But, the beer is cold, the sun is warm, the breeze is cool, your friends and family are near....and the Barbell Economy is set to unfold for the next 30+ years.
Sit back and fasten your seat belts - it's going to be a wild ride....and of course, there will be lots of stops along the way up this mountain where it will feel like the world is ending.
Just don't leave the ride.
Someone else will take your seat.
The dirty little secret is this:
He/She who moves less wins.
Long-term thinking always wins out over short-term trading. Worrying about the next setback sells lots of ads but makes almost no money for you. History proves it.
Forget economics - think demographics.
It's the big picture. It's the current under the emotionally-driven waves.
Demogronomics keeps us on the leading edge of that long-term direction - but it also demands a much larger, far more patient view of the economic elements at work.
Pray for that correction.
Generation Y is set to do much greater things - far beyond what the Boomers accomplished - or what can be defined today.
Until we see you again - may your journey be grand and your legacy significant.