Carty Capital Management
CFP | Fiduciary



Speaking of Garbage

Good Morning,


Sorry...long-time readers and partner advisors around the country know me.


They know that sometimes, after all the patience is spent, after all the allowances for the lunacy sold on media as expertise, you just have to call a spade a spade.  Most of it is just plain garbage.


Let me enter a few pieces - from just the first few hours of this morning as evidence:






It's 100 points on 23,400.

It's 100 points off the 8,000 point rally over the last 20 months...8,000 points!

It's 100 points.  Pray for more.


Of course, the headline tells the novice investor that the 100 point drop in futures is somehow a sure sign that the mood for risk sours.  Let me provide a clue.  If you feel risk is pervasive and somehow goes up or down based on mood swings, then please - get out of the market now.


Alas, if you did not leap to hit the sell button based on the headline alone, there are a few more senseless daggers waiting for you in the bullet points below the chart.  I am fond of the first one "careening ever closer to the sun..."  Creative huh?  What a crock.


Or how about the always present downdraft just around the corner.  I was certain we might get a few weeks rest from this repeating headline given Halloween is done for 2017.  I was wrong.


When I read never-ending garbage like this, it pains my heart because I know the average investor, massively confused by what is unfolding in our Barbell Economy - will be swayed - often in the wrong direction, by the repeating insanity sold to too many as expertise.


I am providing a chart below if you need reasons to sell (hey, before you go - don't worry - give it some time, there will be plenty more reasons to add to this chart over the next few years....):




Another shot?


Maybe one prefers this type of mind-numbing poison versus pictures and charts and technicals - there is plenty more where this came from:




Note the darker skies and worsening pictures "as the mood sours."


I loved the headline this morning on CNBC (it's over the same 100 points by the way):


"Dow Set to Open 100 Down as Uncertainty Plagues Investors"


"Plagues Investors"?  Are you kidding me?  If these people had licenses, they would be fined for misleading the public.


And by the way, pray for more.


Some Better Snapshots


How about a few better snapshots to take away from the morning shout-out:




Or maybe this tidbit instead:





So ponder this in the midst of all the insanity sometimes.


He who moves less wins.


Long-term thinking always wins out over short-term trading.  Worrying about the next setback sells lots of ads but makes almost no money for you.  History proves it.  Find the problem in these last two snapshots above.  Eight years since 1933 have been down GDP years.  Three of them since 1982.  Two of the 8 were -0.04% and -0.01%


No more questions your Honor.


In Summary


Demogronomics keeps us on the leading edge of long-term direction - but demands a much larger, more patient view of the elements at work.


It's the long-term currents we need to invest upon - not the short-term waves which will assuredly always roll ashore to block the horizon.


Those waves are the noise too many will likely continue to be lost in...and the reason the long-term game is so hard to win based on fearful activities.


Play it Again Sam....


Pray for that correction.


In the end, like it or not, long-term investors have learned Demographics Rule The Long-Term Game


Generation Y is set to do much greater things - far beyond what the Boomers accomplished - or what can be defined today.


Imagine explaining an iPhone X to your buddies in 1982 - and then extrapolate that forward for the next 35 years.  We will see things look a lot more like Star Trek than we can currently imagine for all the Trekkies out there - and the UBER note above is just a slight scratch of the surface of change ahead.


Until we see you again - may your journey be grand and your legacy significant.

InvestingMike Williams